\nI was hesitant to write a piece attempting to handicap the 2020 Democratic\nPrimary because it is so early and there are far too numerous possible\nscenarios. Then Joe Biden got in, making\nno less than 20 candidates vying for the nomination. There is so much early controversy that I\nfeel compelled to try and break it down. \nHere are some of the key issues and challenges with this unprecedented\nprimary. It will be extremely more\ndifficult to raise the necessary campaign funds with so many candidates, especially\nwith the emphasis on small donations and against larger, corporate donors. The debates will likely be a circus that do\nnot result in clarity about the candidates. \nSpecial interests are imposing incredible moral pressure on candidates\nand voters to dedicate themselves to nominating a woman for President. To mount an effective national strategy, the\nultimately successful candidates will have to distinguish themselves from the\ngravitational pull of the radical liberal and Democratic Socialist elements of\nthe party. This is not a year for\nideological purity or hard feelings following the primary for those who supported\nother candidates. This is year to\ncompete across the country to defeat Trump at all costs and hopefully take the\nSenate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nUntil and unless Congress successfully overturns the Supreme Court\u2019s Citizens United<\/em> case, elections will be unfortunately\nfueled and dominated by unconscionable amounts of money, especially dark money,\nunfettered large scale corporate donations, and allegedly unaffiliated\norganizations running huge ad campaigns to buy elections. This greatly favors Republicans, making any\nsolution far more difficult. Democratic\ncandidates feel compelled to accept only smaller donations from individuals,\nwhich could be effective or an issue in Democratic primaries. However, until this becomes the standard,\nDemocratic candidates will be at a huge disadvantage running against their Republican\nopponents in general elections. The\nimmediate problem in the 2020 primary is the number of candidates trying to\nraise money. Voters receive a daily\ndeluge of emails and phone calls from multiple campaigns desperate to receive\nmoney. To survive on small, individual\ndonations, they must continually ask donors for help. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 How can so many candidates, currently over 20, participate in meaningful, informative debates in order to present themselves to the voters?\u00a0 The larger the field, the less each candidate will get to speak.\u00a0 To be fair, every candidate must be able to answer each question.\u00a0 They will not be able to respond to each other\u2019s answers or offer follow-ups because of the time this would take.\u00a0 Even a \u201csmall\u201d field of perhaps five candidates makes a debate more challenging, but the closer the Democrats get to 20, the more daunting the task and less effective the debate.\u00a0 Debates are an excellent opportunity for voters to assess the candidates in one setting.\u00a0 As such they need to be meaningful fora to hear the candidates\u2019 views.\u00a0 The Democratic National Committee has scheduled debates to be two-night affairs with half of the candidates appearing each night.\u00a0 To qualify, candidates must raise money from 65,000 individual donors and reach minimum polling numbers.\u00a0 To avoid labeling candidates as top or bottom tier, they will randomly determine who appears which night.\u00a0 While this may be preferable to a rating system that does in fact establish tiers, candidates will be randomly divided, preventing some potentially logical, helpful match-ups.\u00a0 Will voters watch both nights?\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nThere is a moral push to ensure a woman at the top of the ticket, to have\nall male candidates commit outright to selecting a female VP candidate, and to\nensure a person of color is on the ticket. Diversity is important, never more so in the\nface of the fear, hate, and white nationalism spewed by President Trump and his\nextremist base. There is no moral\nequivalency whatsoever between vile white supremacists and those standing up\nfor freedom and equality. We had a Black\nPresident win two terms and were on the verge of electing a woman when Hillary\nClinton won the popular vote by 3 million but lost the electoral college vote\nby a combined total of less than 80,000. \nIt will happen. And we will elect\na Hispanic President as well as other firsts. \nThese will be great milestones, but they must be earned, not anointed. Voters must be free to vote for the candidates,\nmale or female, of any race, based on being inspired by their leadership, policy\npriorities, and other important substance. \n <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nThus enters Joe Biden, twice unsuccessful as a Presidential candidate,\nbut twice elected as Barrack Obama\u2019s Vice President. With 50 years of public service including 36\nyears in the Senate, Biden has a record of experience and leadership. Many believe he is too old (age 76), prone to\ngaffs, too centrist, and out of touch with today\u2019s Party. Others believe he is a proven leader,\nconnects with working families (where the Clinton campaign failed), and has the\nbest chance to beat Trump. It is hard to\nbelieve voters would hold Biden\u2019s folksy misspeaks against him while ignoring\nTrump\u2019s abysmal record of hate and deceit. \nBiden has been more of an institutional fund raiser, much the opposite\nof contemporary pressure to forego those donors in favor of small, online\ndonations from individuals. Hopefully\nvoters would not punish Biden or any other candidate who recognizes that it\ntakes an exorbitant amount of money to run a campaign and does what is\nnecessary to compete with Trump and the unlimited amount of special interest\nmoney on his side that will run smear campaigns against Democrats. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nBiden will have to define himself and contrast his views with the morass\nof campaign rivals. He refers to himself\nas an Obama-Biden Democrat, a somewhat vague definition. Will Biden rescue the Democratic field from\ndrifting too far to the left and threatening the necessary national\nstrategy? Biden seems to want to occupy\nthis center space, along with Senator Klobuchar, Governor Hickenlooper, Rep. O\u2019Rourke,\nMayor Buttigieg, et al. These candidates\nneed to pull the field back towards the realistic center while remaining true\nto the progressive ideals important to many. \nThey can best appeal to Trump voters and further erode his support,\nespecially in some key battleground states Democrats must win. Democrats must also keep these voters beyond\n2020 or risk continued losses in the Senate and struggles to win the White\nHouse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nWith Trump\u2019s record of wide ranging abhorrent personal conduct, this could\nbe a good year for Democrats to make a sincere effort to reconcile with\nreligious and values voters, many of whom share interests with Democrats on\ncertain economic issues, environmental issues, etc. They are likely to welcome an overture from a reasonable\nDemocratic candidate and reject the overt, outrageous hypocrisy of evangelical\nleaders who continually blindly excuse and ignore Trump\u2019s incredible transgressions\nwhile criticizing Democrats for far less. \nThe big challenge with these and a wider swath of voters is the issue of\nlate term abortions and Democrats must do better on this issue, even with\nexisting and pro-choice voters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \n Another unfortunate consequence\nof such a large primary field is that many candidates will lose the seats they currently\nhold because they are running for President. \nIt is worth the risk for the most competitive candidates; however, there\nare more than enough candidates and we need many of these individuals to stay\nwhere they are and continue to provide crucial leadership or perhaps run for\nother higher office. Consider the two\nTexans in the race, Rep. Beto O\u2019Rourke and Former HUD Secretary and former San\nAntonio Mayor Julian Castro. It is still\nearly, but for better or worse neither appears poised to make it far into the\nrace. One of them should commit to\nmounting a serious challenge to John Cornyn and rid the Senate of one of its more\nshameless ideologues and Mitch McConnell\u2019s right hand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nRep. Seth Moulton just entered a race wherein Senator Elizabeth Warren,\nalso from Massachusetts, was expected to play a dominant role. Moulton, who led an unsuccessful challenge to\nNancy Pelosi as Speaker, could have an excellent career in House leadership as\nhe is clearly a rising star. He could also\nposition himself to eventually succeed Warren or Markey, both aging, in the\nSenate. Moulton would serve Massachusetts\nand the nation extremely well as part of House leadership or in the Senate,\nneither of which precludes a future Presidential run. He is extremely impressive and has been\nbuilding a national network. As a young leader,\nhe does not need to rush into this year\u2019s campaign and can wait for more\nfertile territory in a future Presidential bid. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n \nAs for Warren, she has proven to be less of a force than expected,\ncurrently in 4th<\/sup> place in early New Hampshire polls. New Hampshire is her backyard and shares a\nmedia market with Massachusetts. Voters\nthere should be familiar with Warren, suggesting she is a weaker candidate than\nmany predicted. It was always my view that\nWarren was not among the better, stronger 2020 primary candidates. She loses supporters to Bernie Sanders. Warren did well as a Clinton surrogate in\n2016 delivering stump speeches attacking Trump. \nThat has not translated into success as a Presidential candidate,\nespecially in such a crowded field. It is\ntoo early to count her out, but already having high name recognition and\nfailing behind is ominous for her campaign. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has likewise failed to gain much support.\u00a0 She is not exactly unknown to Democratic voters herself.\u00a0 Gillibrand scored a great upset victory when she flipped an upstate New York Congressional seat long held by Republicans.\u00a0 Although still relatively unproven, because of the excitement surrounding her win and her upstate New York credentials, Governor Andrew Cuomo appointed her to fill Hillary Clinton\u2019s Senate seat when Clinton became Secretary of State.\u00a0 Gillibrand almost immediately transformed herself into one of the Senate\u2019s more liberal members, becoming less popular across her own state.\u00a0 She also led a vicious attack on then Senator Al Franken that many believed was premature and overly harsh forcing him to resign without any due process. \u00a0She has very little chance of gaining traction in this race and I predict she would not win the New York presidential primary unless she was the clear national front runner at the time.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nRep. Eric Swalwell entered a race where his fellow Californian, Senator Kamala\nHarris, is already considered a top tier candidate. Nothing precludes multiple candidates from\nthe same state from running, but Swalwell has little chance of breaking through\nand will accomplish nothing other than vacating his seat. He could be a force in the House, position\nhimself to succeed Senator Feinstein, who is likely in her last term, or position\nhimself to run for Governor, each of which becomes harder by forfeiting his\nCongressional seat. He is young with a\nstrong message and there is no need for him to give everything up to run for\nPresident in 2020. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nSimilarly, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan entered the race as a longshot to\nwin. Like Moulton, he recently challenged\nNancy Pelosi\u2019s leadership and made a very strong case for himself. He speaks clearly to many Democratic constituents,\nespecially those workers who felt abandoned and opted for Trump in 2016. Ohio has become increasingly a \u201cred state\u201d so\nit is unclear what other opportunities Ryan, another strong young leader, would\nhave in his home state. He seems up for\nthe challenge of running for Senate or Governor because he resonates with\nvoters. However, it is also easy to see\nhim in future House leadership roles. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nGovernors Hickenlooper and Inslee have proven records including job\ngrowth and legislative accomplishments. \nInslee has demonstrated that not only is Climate Change critical, but\nsustainability and clean energy are bona fide job creators. Whoever wins the nomination must build upon\nthese successes as part of the national campaign message. It is interesting, perhaps a bit disturbing,\nthat neither governor has garnered much early support, both lagging in the\npolls. Traditionally governors have been\ncompetitive primary candidates. Reliably\nblue Massachusetts has elected a strong of Republican governors as opposed to electing\nDemocratic candidates deemed too liberal or progressive by voters. The same trend will likely befall\npresidential candidates, especially in states far less reliably blue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar offers Democrats the closest thing to an all-in-one candidate they have. \u00a0From the Midwest\/Heartland of the country, she represents something lacking in other candidates.\u00a0 Holding traditional Democratic views and priorities, she is a pragmatic leader who can work effectively with colleagues to get things done.\u00a0 Although she is not the most dynamic speaker, she presents well and sincerely.\u00a0 The key is whether her more centrist approach will work in the leftward moving party.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard brings little to the race and will continue failing to gain support.\u00a0 The same can be said of former Maryland Rep John Delaney and tech exec Andrew Yang.\u00a0 Surprisingly New Jersey Senator Corey Booker struggles to find support as well.\u00a0 Booker had taken Wall Street money to fund his campaigns.\u00a0 Few politicians in the highly expensive and competitive New York and New Jersey media markets can afford to run without raising substantial funds.\u00a0 Voters should look more at a candidate\u2019s record and policy proposals as the better measure of their qualifications.\u00a0 There are a few additional candidates not even worth mentioning at this time.\u00a0 They are all casualties of an overly crowded field, especially Booker. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n \nThat brings us to Bernie Sanders, who excites part of the Democratic Party\nwhile alienating the other. Sanders has\nnever been part of the Democratic party, self-identifying throughout his career\nas Socialist and Independent. When he\nentered the 2016 race, he made an agreement with the Democratic Party that for\nhim to run in their primary, he committed to remain in the party. He reneged, returning to his independent\nstatus. Now Sanders again wants to\nutilize the Democratic party apparatus for his own purposes and the party will\nacquiesce. Sanders, as old and long-serving\nas Biden, does not represent the future or youth of the Democratic party, which\nappears to be a major theme in the 2020 race. \nWhile deserving credit for unabashedly adhering to his policy beliefs\nand making his case, he continues to be disingenuous on how we could realistically\npay, how he would reduce the National debt, or how he would get much of his\nplatform through Congress. If the\nAmerican people make him President, they will undoubtedly also give us divided\ngovernment to keep him in check. No\ndoubt a powerful force of supporters, we will have to see how he does while\nbeing tested in debates and other fora. Does\nhe beat Trump or help him win another 4 years? \n <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nIt is highly likely the field will significantly narrow before the first\nfour primaries. Most candidates will\nlose funding and support, forcing them to drop out before any votes are\ncast. Although nobody wants a\ncoronation, the chaos from such a huge primary will likely cause a lot of\ndamage and may hurt the eventual nominee. \nIf even just five competitive candidates make it to Iowa and New\nHampshire, the \u201cwinner\u201d of those contests could receive as low as 21% of the\nvote or a similarly low total. That\nmeans the overwhelming majority of voters supported a different candidate. Nevertheless, this \u201cwinner\u201d could seize\ncontrol of the race at that moment. For\nexample, perhaps ironically, Bernie Sanders is outraising his primary rivals, could\nwin Iowa and New Hampshire with far below 50%, even below 30%, and could\neffectively buy the primary by California (now an early state), all with a\nmajority of voters preferring someone else. To be fair, this could happen with other\ncandidates as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nThere is legitimate concern that the Democratic Party is moving too far\nto the left, at least as concerns a national strategy, winning the White House,\nand flipping enough Senate seats to take control. Recent Democratic electoral strategy is\nfocused on what they call the \u201cblue wall\u201d of states that are often\nreliable. Several went for Trump in 2016\nand without any margin for error in the calculus, Democrats lost the election\nand lost any chance of winning back the Senate. \nSenate control would have been critical to control Trump\u2019s extremism, especially\nhis judicial and cabinet nominations. It\nwould be foolish for Democrats to continue conceding so many states to the\nRepublicans, both for the White House and the Senate. At a minimum, they need to force Republicans\nto fight for every victory if not become more competitive, potentially winning\nthemselves. Even if Democrats win Senate\ncontrol, they will not be able to hold it due to the number of states where\nthey do not realistically compete. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nIn 2020, there is a big risk that a Sanders candidacy leads to more\nDemocrats staying home or voting for an alternative. Other far left leaning candidates could cause\nthe same, but Sanders is not even a Democrat so there is less loyalty. Many purist progressives stayed home, voted\nfor Jill Stein, or even voted for Donald Trump in 2016 because they did not\nlike Hillary Clinton. Obama proved to be\na decent President overall, but some Clinton voters supported McCain, believing\nat the time that Obama lacked the experience to be President, some believing he\nwould be too radically liberal. \nThankfully for Obama, Sarah Palin cost McCain the election. Democratic voters need to decide whether they\nwant to win or concede to Republicans. \nLike it or not, voters have a binary choice, at least for now. Either the Democrats win the White House or\nthe Republicans. Whichever candidate they\nlike, no matter how passionate, Democrats must unfailingly support their\nnominee regardless of policy differences. \nObviously, no party should ever nominate or support a candidate with serious\ncriminal or character challenges. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nHere is the key \u2013 it does not matter what you stand for if you do not\nwin elections. Democrats must win elections\nand control Congress in order to pass any of the priorities. When the party strays too far to the left, they\nthreaten their ability to mount a sufficiently strong national or 50-state\ncampaign necessary to control Congress and the White House. They could have a more ideologically stringent\nCongressional presence pushing a pure progressive agenda or even Democratic\nSocialist agenda. If so, that would further\nlimit Democrats to a more coastal elite party as they have recently been labeled. Democrats took control of the House in 2018\nbecause more centrist minded candidates flipped Republican seats. It will take a similar effort to win the\nSenate. If they win, they can at least accomplish\nsome things but if they lose, they will accomplish nothing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \nThe Democratic National Committee, while ensuring a fair primary\nprocess, must take measures to ensure voters get to hear from the candidates\nand the candidates have fair opportunities to compete. President Trump wins a second term if\nDemocrats do not select the right nominee, one who can connect with voters\nacross the country, win back disaffected voters, and stand up to Trump\u2019s\ninevitable bullying behavior. Democratic\ndonors and voters must ensure they support the strongest candidates. The DNC must find a way to control the chaos\nwhile not favoring or opposing any legitimate candidates. The sooner the field shrinks to a more\nreasonable number of viable candidates, the better opportunity voters will have\nto assess and select the best nominee. \nThe nation\u2019s future is truly at stake this year. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" I was hesitant to write a piece attempting to handicap the 2020 Democratic Primary because it is so early and there are far too numerous possible scenarios. 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