\nAs of today, April 9, 2019, seventeen candidates have declared for the\nDemocratic Party nomination to run against Donald Trump for President in 2020. Four to eight more candidates are expected to\nannounce in the coming weeks, and there is speculation the field may grow to\nthirty! Such a large field is untenable\nand counter-productive. It would be\nvirtually impossible for voters to truly get to know and assess the candidates\nand for the candidates to get out their message. The Republicans had a field of seventeen in\n2016, with demonstrable challenges to an effective primary campaign. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0Legally speaking, anyone who meets the Constitutional requirements and is able to file the requisite paperwork can run for President.\u00a0 It does not mean it is a practical decision, a wise decision, or that they have the slightest chance to win.\u00a0 In fact, they may not even make the ballot.\u00a0 On the other hand, political parties are private organizations, not government institutions, thus the rules and limitations that apply to government do not apply to the parties.\u00a0 They do have flexibility and discretion as to how to conduct their primary campaigns.\u00a0 The biggest restraint is the fear of alienating voters and donors, and they do not want to risk the dire consequences of being seen as favoring certain candidates or even rigging the process.\u00a0 That begs the question as to how parties should regulate an efficient primary process that serves the interests of voters and produces the right front-runners and ultimate winner.\u00a0 Hopefully the party and voters will rally around the ultimate winner with financial, logistical, and enthusiastic support.\u00a0 \u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nDuring the primary, the more candidates that enter the race, the harder\nit will be to raise the necessary money. \nThis is especially true in the Democratic Party where there is\ntremendous pressure on candidates to only accept money from individual donors\nand forego corporate, PAC, or institutional donors. The travel, media, and campaign costs will be\nthe same, perhaps even more in order for the candidate to break through the\nmorass, but the donors will be spread thin. \nThe amount of money in our elections is unconscionable and we must\nstrive to reducing spending, especially the dark money rooted in\ndishonesty. However, we also must live\nin the reality of today and until we fix this problem, candidates have the\nright to be competitive in their races. \nDemocrats cannot unilaterally fix this problem while allowing Republicans\nto benefit from all the big money. \nAdditionally, it is highly likely that many donors will choose to wait\nuntil the field thins before supporting a candidate either for fear of backing\nsomeone who drops quickly or the inability to really evaluate so many\nchoices. Some may even wait until the\ngeneral election because of all the money it will take to win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nDebates will be the biggest and most obvious challenge. The large number of candidates led the Democrats\nto make similar adjustments as did the Republicans in 2016 and have two tiers\nof debates. Assuming most candidates make\nit to the debates, there could easily be ten or more candidates on stage in\nboth tiers. In fact, if the number\napproaches thirty, they could almost need three tiers! Democrats plan to hold the debates on\nconsecutive nights with the \u201clower\u201d tier debate on the first night and \u201cupper\u201d\ntier on the second. The tiers will be\nbased on how many individual donors the candidates have; those with more individual\ndonors getting into the upper tier. There\nis a clear disadvantage to being in the lower tier. It is a safe bet that fewer voters will watch\nthe lower tier debate and there is no guarantee it will have the same media\ncoverage. Candidates will fight and claw\ntheir way into the upper tier, but it may not be within their control or\nrelated to their message. They are\nwholly reliant on individuals sending in whatever they can afford. If they went by poll numbers, that would\npresent similar challenges. There is\njust not a perfect way to arrange such a large field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThe tiered debate structure will not fix the problem. Having this many candidate on stage prevents\nany meaningful interaction, follow-up, responses, and limits the number of\nquestions. If every candidate has the\nopportunity to answer each question or address every issue, which would be fair\nto all, this will be nothing more than a series of mini speeches. Viewers may forget the question by the time\neach candidate provides their comments. While it is better to avoid the inevitable\ndegradation of the debate wherein candidates trade negative retorts and lose\ncontrol, this format will limit or prevent any opportunity for candidates to\nrespond to other\u2019s comments or the moderator to seek clarification. There will need to be far fewer total questions\nin order to get through each candidate\u2019s answers. This will provide less insight to viewers and\nmake it hard for candidates to distinguish and differentiate themselves. The point is that the higher the number of\nparticipants, the lower the quality of the debate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThere will likely be a natural attrition of primary candidates before\nthe contests begin with Iowa and New Hampshire. If so, there is still a strong likelihood many\ncandidates will make it to the actual voting. \nThe question is whether the best candidates, those most competitive and\nmost able to lead the nation, can hang on long enough to get there. Will name recognition or reputation supplant\nactual performance, policy positions or potential to be the next great leader? With so many candidates ostensibly on the\nballot, the \u201cwinner\u201d may be the candidate who edges out the others, but because\nthe votes are spread out may \u201cwin\u201d with a relatively low percentage of the\nvotes. For example, hypothetically if\nthe field narrows to ten candidates, one could technically \u201cwin\u201d with eleven\npercent of the vote. However, with the\nlabel and momentum that come from being called the winner, that individual goes\nforward with a huge advantage. The\nstakes are high, and this will be a fight. \nHopefully the ultimate winner can move forward unscathed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThe Democratic Party cannot interfere with the outcome of the vote or be\nseen as favoring particular campaigns. \nHowever, the party has some responsibility to maintain order in what could\neasily become a chaotic campaign. They\ncan try and persuade the less competitive candidates to drop out, especially\nonce those candidates have had the opportunity to make their case, but not get\nthe results. It is crucial that voters\nhave the chance to assess the candidates and that their votes matter. It is also imperative to have an efficient\nprocess that produces a candidate ready to take on Donald Trump and the\nRepublican machine in 2020. It will be\nhard enough without the candidate entering the general election scathed from a\nfierce primary battle. Democrats would\nbe well served to keep the primary positive, focused on issues and defeating\nTrump, not with a candidate healing from wounds inflicted in their own primary.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nAt this point, it does not appear as if President Trump will have a primary\ncontest. There are Republican leaders\nurging Senator Mitt Romney, former Governor and UN Ambassador Nicki Haley,\nformer Governor John Kasich, and others to mount a primary challenge. This could be good for the Republican Party. The contest could define the modern GOP and\neither ratify it as the party Trump has transformed or modify back to more\ntraditional conservative values. The\nmore the party becomes the Trumpist Party, the more traditional Republicans may\nsearch for a new home away from Trump\u2019s racism, anti-trade, pro-Russia\nextremism, not to mention character and personal conduct, issues that used to\nbe important for Republicans. There is\nstill time. If there is a Republican Primary,\nthat will add to the chaos and importance of the 2020 primaries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nVoters must remain informed and involved. The future of our country, our policies,\nforeign relations, and role in the world are at stake. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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