\nFor several years the news out of Turkey is not good, at least from the\nperspective of NATO, the U.S., and the Middle East. Russia, China, and Iran may be very excited\nabout the possibilities. The Turkish\npeople ought to be terrified. I am\ntalking about Turkey\u2019s surreptitious plan to leave NATO. This would be a terrible development, but the\nwriting is on the wall. It would likely\ntake major concessions by NATO, which are largely unacceptable, to convince\nTurkey to stay. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nTurkish President Erdogan has become increasingly authoritarian since\ntaking office. Turkey\u2019s elections,\nalways questionable in how they apportion opposition votes, became even more\ndubious as Erdogan consolidated power and eroded the institutions of\ngovernment. The Turkish military, long\nthe safeguard of some semblance of democracy, is no longer effective in this\nregard. Erdogan caught the military unprepared\nwith an astonishing purge of career officers loyal to the country and the\npeople, replacing them with those strictly loyal to himself. Turkish citizens have lost significant\nfreedom under his increasingly tyrannical rule. \n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nAlthough President Trump likes Erdogan (a facet of his inexplicable\naffection for authoritarian rulers against our own national interests and\nvalues) and they have had a close relationship, U.S.-Turkey relations have starkly\ndeteriorated. Turkish relations with\nEurope have declined similarly, in large part over human rights concerns. Russian President Vladimir Putin, always\nlooking for any opportunity to weaken NATO, has ushered in an era of stronger,\nimproved relations with Erdogan\u2019s Turkey which, as he intended, threatens\nTurkey\u2019s NATO status. Russia has always been\ndesperate to establish connections with Turkey. \nDuring the Cold War, Turkish control over the Bosporus Straights and geographically\nstrategic position was a major challenge to Russian naval movement. As a NATO member, Turkish air bases afforded\nNATO forces a tactical edge. Over the\nyears, Turkey has played a critical role, militarily and diplomatically, in\nregional issues and conflicts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nAn incredibly dark side of Turkish geopolitical history involves genocide. While Turkey had been a partner in the effort\nto defeat ISIS and oppose Syrian dictator Assad, their motivation was to\nultimately attack and murder the Kurds. \nKurds have suffered tremendously from brutal regimes such as Assad, Saddam\nHussein, and Iran in addition to Turkey. \nConsequently, Kurdish forces have been steadfast allies of the U.S. and\ncoalition forces in Iraq, with the U.S. protecting Kurdish territory between\nthe Gulf War and Operation Iraqi Freedom. \nKurdish forces have led the fight on the ground against ISIS. The Kurds have earned respect and the autonomy\nthey crave and so desperately need. In\nfact, they have earned an independent state as well and that terrifies\nTurkey. President Trump\u2019s recent\npronouncement of the immediate withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Syria was\ndone at the behest of Erdogan, his intent being to commit genocide against the\nKurds once the U.S. was gone. Thankfully\nTrump faced significant internal pressure and revised his plan. Good for the Kurds, but angering Erdogan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nPart of Erdogan\u2019s breakup with Trump was fueled by the recent murder of\njournalist Jamal Khashoggi. Khashoggi,\nfrom Saudi Arabia, was a permanent resident in the U.S. writing for the\nWashington Post. His work often\ncriticized the Saudi Royal family, focused on repression, corruption, etc. Saudi King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed\nbin Salman were furious. Ultimately,\nthey manipulated Khashoggi into going to the Saudi Consulate in Turkey, where a\nSaudi hit squad, sent by the Crown Prince, tortured him with a bone saw leading\nto his death. Turkey was incensed this\noccurred in their country, but Trump stood solidly with the Saudi Royal\nfamily. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\nThis helped push Erdogan further towards Putin, who was all too happy to\nwelcome him into the Russian fold. Putin\ninvited Erdogan to participate in his conferences concerning Syria, omitting\nthe U.S. Clearly, he made deals with\nErdogan that had little concern if any about protecting the Kurds. Erdogan sensed a better partner for his repressive\nstyle of rule with a fellow authoritarian. \nMost recently, Turkey finalized the purchase of Russia\u2019s S-400 missile\nsystem, an incredibly advanced system. As\nis easy to understand, NATO members have neither sold nor purchased weapons\nsystems to Russia and its allies, nor have Russia and its allies purchased or\nsold their weapons systems to NATO members. \nThe S-400 is so advanced that it poses a serious threat to NATO weapons\nsystems. Turkey\u2019s Russia purchase forced\nthe U.S. to cancel the planned sale of our own advanced fighter planes, the\nF-35, to Turkey because they are incompatible with the S-400 and the S-400\nwould be able to collect sensitive data about the F-35 that Russia could use against\nNATO. This is intolerable under multiple\nperspectives. Putin\u2019s plan was to use\nthe S-400 to pry Turkey from NATO. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Turkey\u2019s decision to proceed with Russia\u2019s S-400, forfeiting the purchase of U.S. F-35s, forebodes a dangerous, but increasingly predictable, turn towards Russia and away from NATO.\u00a0 NATO stands for the preservation of freedom and democracy against repressive authoritarian regimes.\u00a0 NATO and the U.S. have overlooked Turkey\u2019s less than transparent democracy for decades because of their geopolitical relevance in Europe, the Caucasus, and the Middle East.\u00a0 Their strategic importance and cooperation on many fronts overcame deficiencies in their internal political institutions.\u00a0 However, Erdogan\u2019s abrupt move toward extreme authoritarianism to consolidate power and eliminate any opposition called serious question into their continued membership.\u00a0 Their limited assistance in Syria and refusal to allow the U.S. to operate from Turkey during Operation Iraqi Freedom challenged the alliance and signified Turkey\u2019s primary focus on destroying the Kurdish people. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Putin is poised to give Turkey the proverbial key to the city to pry them from NATO and into a more friendly posture with Russia.\u00a0 Putin and Erdogan are of like mind in the Caucasus and Middle East.\u00a0 Erdogan no longer believes in the importance of being part of NATO, not at the cost of his key goals.\u00a0 His increasing friendship with Putin directly threatens and runs contrary to Turkey\u2019s membership in NATO.\u00a0 The result is an irreconcilable impasse.\u00a0 NATO did not want to expel Turkey in the hope Turkey could modify its policies and Erdogan could be convinced to move back towards a semblance of freedom more consistent with NATO.\u00a0 However, Erdogan\u2019s decision on the Kurds and S-400 are entirely incompatible with NATO. \u00a0Thus, it appears Turkey is poised to leave the alliance.\u00a0 In my view, Erdogan has been preparing to pursue this course of action and is likely to execute it in the near future.\u00a0 Turkey will likely make some grand demand of NATO on a variety of issues before acting.\u00a0 NATO and the U.S. are not likely to be able to accede to such extortion due to the seriousness of the issues at stake.\u00a0 Erdogan will use that as his impetus to move away from NATO and closer to Putin.\u00a0 I truly hope NATO can prevent this for the good of the region.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
For several years the news out of Turkey is not good, at least from the perspective of NATO, the U.S., and the Middle East. Russia, China, and Iran may […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":186,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"wds_primary_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[99,200,244,302],"class_list":["post-377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-erdogan","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/whoobazoo.com\/thebooth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/whoobazoo.com\/thebooth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/whoobazoo.com\/thebooth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/whoobazoo.com\/thebooth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/whoobazoo.com\/thebooth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/whoobazoo.com\/thebooth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/377\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/whoobazoo.com\/thebooth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/186"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/whoobazoo.com\/thebooth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/whoobazoo.com\/thebooth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/whoobazoo.com\/thebooth\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}